Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Beijing Emerging Eastern Aviation Equipment Co., Ltd. (002933.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.92 - $2.79$2.34
Multi-Stage$3.18 - $3.50$3.34
Blended Fair Value$2.84
Current Price$33.46
Upside-91.51%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-29.16%0.00%0.090.060.000.310.430.480.340.300.260.26
YoY Growth--52.46%0.00%-100.00%-28.01%-10.42%42.24%12.50%14.29%1.45%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.27%0.17%0.00%1.19%1.53%1.46%0.60%0.93%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)31.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)23.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.213.882.33
Cash Retained (M)23.4223.4223.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.21-3.88-2.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)17.2019.5321.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)117.45117.45117.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.170.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.170.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.24
WACC / Discount Rate8.78%8.78%8.78%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.92$2.34$2.79
Upside / Downside-94.25%-93.00%-91.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)31.0730.7630.4530.1529.8529.5530.43
Payout Ratio24.64%37.71%50.78%63.85%76.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7.6511.6015.4619.2522.9626.5928.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.78%8.78%8.78%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)10.5610.6610.77
Year 2 PV (M)12.8113.0713.33
Year 3 PV (M)14.5114.9515.41
Year 4 PV (M)15.7416.4017.07
Year 5 PV (M)16.5917.4618.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)303.77319.59336.06
Equity Value (M)373.97392.13411.00
Shares Outstanding (M)117.45117.45117.45
Fair Value$3.18$3.34$3.50
Upside / Downside-90.48%-90.02%-89.54%

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