Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co., Ltd. (001914.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$144.49 - $170.23$159.53
Multi-Stage$34.17 - $37.47$35.79
Blended Fair Value$97.66
Current Price$12.20
Upside700.50%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.96%-12.27%0.260.200.210.240.280.390.460.550.710.98
YoY Growth--26.90%-3.31%-14.12%-11.68%-29.03%-14.71%-17.49%-21.65%-27.97%2.93%
Dividend Yield--2.16%1.97%1.38%1.39%1.40%1.65%5.09%6.08%5.82%10.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)906.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)22.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)883.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)181.37113.3668.02
Cash Retained (M)883.90883.90883.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-181.37-113.36-68.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)702.53770.54815.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,059.451,059.451,059.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.660.730.77
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.660.730.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.680.750.79
WACC / Discount Rate5.56%5.56%5.56%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$144.49$159.53$170.23
Upside / Downside1,084.34%1,207.65%1,295.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)906.87965.811,028.591,095.451,166.661,242.491,279.76
Payout Ratio2.53%20.03%37.52%55.01%72.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)22.97193.41385.92602.64845.901,118.241,183.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.56%5.56%5.56%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)181.51183.23184.95
Year 2 PV (M)339.89346.37352.90
Year 3 PV (M)498.10512.40526.97
Year 4 PV (M)656.14681.38707.33
Year 5 PV (M)814.01853.33894.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)33,712.5335,340.8637,031.50
Equity Value (M)36,202.1937,917.5639,697.81
Shares Outstanding (M)1,059.451,059.451,059.45
Fair Value$34.17$35.79$37.47
Upside / Downside180.09%193.36%207.13%

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