Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

China Union Holdings Ltd. (000036.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.04 - $0.04$0.04
Multi-Stage$0.11 - $0.13$0.12
Blended Fair Value$0.08
Current Price$4.35
Upside-98.13%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-42.95%-2.33%0.030.060.120.320.510.560.480.280.120.15
YoY Growth---43.11%-50.67%-62.32%-37.38%-8.72%16.29%75.69%137.16%-23.09%250.69%
Dividend Yield--0.89%2.05%3.17%7.59%12.53%16.65%8.23%4.23%1.89%2.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)38.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)25.49
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.754.842.91
Cash Retained (M)25.4925.4925.49
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.75-4.84-2.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)17.7420.6522.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,411.441,411.441,411.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.020.020.03
WACC / Discount Rate5.52%5.52%5.52%
Growth Rate-35.08%-34.08%-33.08%
Fair Value$0.04$0.04$0.04
Upside / Downside-99.19%-99.08%-98.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)38.7425.5416.8311.107.324.824.97
Payout Ratio34.20%45.36%56.52%67.68%78.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13.2511.589.527.515.774.344.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.52%5.52%5.52%
Growth Rate-35.08%-34.08%-33.08%
Year 1 PV (M)10.8110.9811.14
Year 2 PV (M)8.298.558.81
Year 3 PV (M)6.116.396.69
Year 4 PV (M)4.384.654.94
Year 5 PV (M)3.073.323.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)128.92139.16150.04
Equity Value (M)161.58173.05185.20
Shares Outstanding (M)1,411.441,411.441,411.44
Fair Value$0.11$0.12$0.13
Upside / Downside-97.37%-97.18%-96.98%

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