Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Tivoli A/S (TIV.CO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: LeisureSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$263.86 - $467.18$349.88
Multi-Stage$295.88 - $323.99$309.68
Blended Fair Value$329.78
Current Price$614.00
Upside-46.29%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.76%8.91%3.772.840.000.000.004.123.423.281.921.94
YoY Growth--32.52%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%20.41%4.26%70.91%-0.90%20.65%
Dividend Yield--0.59%0.39%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.63%0.50%0.50%0.32%0.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)110.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)79.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.0413.788.27
Cash Retained (M)79.3079.3079.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.04-13.78-8.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)57.2665.5371.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5.735.735.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share9.9911.4312.39
LTM Dividend per Share5.395.395.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share9.9911.4312.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend15.3816.8217.78
WACC / Discount Rate8.66%8.66%8.66%
Growth Rate2.67%3.67%4.67%
Fair Value$263.86$349.88$467.18
Upside / Downside-57.03%-43.02%-23.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)110.20114.25118.44122.79127.30131.97135.93
Payout Ratio28.04%40.43%52.82%65.22%77.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30.9046.1962.5780.0898.79118.77125.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.66%8.66%8.66%
Growth Rate2.67%3.67%4.67%
Year 1 PV (M)42.1042.5142.92
Year 2 PV (M)51.9852.9954.02
Year 3 PV (M)60.6462.4364.25
Year 4 PV (M)68.1870.8873.65
Year 5 PV (M)74.7278.4382.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,398.591,468.041,540.22
Equity Value (M)1,696.201,775.271,857.35
Shares Outstanding (M)5.735.735.73
Fair Value$295.88$309.68$323.99
Upside / Downside-51.81%-49.56%-47.23%

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