Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Fundamentals

Valuations

Miscellaneous

Analysis Mode

Search

Novartis AG (NOVN.SW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$81.70 - $134.34$105.12
Multi-Stage$171.35 - $188.41$179.71
Blended Fair Value$142.42
Current Price$125.70
Upside13.30%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.79%1.14%3.863.673.803.733.543.363.533.293.283.36
YoY Growth--5.09%-3.34%1.87%5.45%5.15%-4.61%7.25%0.31%-2.53%-2.45%
Dividend Yield--3.49%3.88%4.15%4.24%4.13%4.06%4.15%4.59%5.01%5.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)14,393.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7,818.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,575.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,878.601,799.131,079.48
Cash Retained (M)6,575.006,575.006,575.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,878.60-1,799.13-1,079.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,696.404,775.885,495.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,975.751,975.751,975.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.872.422.78
LTM Dividend per Share3.963.963.96
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.872.422.78
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.836.376.74
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate-0.78%0.22%1.22%
Fair Value$81.70$105.12$134.34
Upside / Downside-35.00%-16.37%6.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)14,393.0014,424.8014,456.6714,488.6014,520.6114,552.6914,989.27
Payout Ratio54.32%61.45%68.59%75.73%82.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7,818.008,864.689,915.9510,971.8212,032.3013,097.4213,865.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate-0.78%0.22%1.22%
Year 1 PV (M)8,256.238,339.448,422.65
Year 2 PV (M)8,601.458,775.708,951.70
Year 3 PV (M)8,864.109,134.829,411.00
Year 4 PV (M)9,053.659,424.199,806.00
Year 5 PV (M)9,178.669,650.6210,141.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)294,598.63309,746.50325,511.15
Equity Value (M)338,552.72355,071.27372,244.30
Shares Outstanding (M)1,975.751,975.751,975.75
Fair Value$171.35$179.71$188.41
Upside / Downside36.32%42.97%49.89%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

« Prev Page 7 of 30 Next »
Ticker Company Dividend Yield % Dividend Per Share Payout Ratio %
PLYMPlymouth Industrial REIT, Inc.4.80%$1.0549.94%
SAFTSafety Insurance Group, Inc.4.80%$3.6361.47%
CETCentral Securities Corp.4.79%$2.4313.87%
GBLIGlobal Indemnity Group, LLC4.79%$1.3870.11%
JANIXJanus Henderson Triton Fund Class D4.79%$1.2767.95%
MITNAG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc. 9.500% Senior Notes due 20294.77%$1.2175.90%
PRUPrudential Financial, Inc.4.77%$5.4373.37%
IFAFXThe Income Fund of America, Class F-1 Shares4.76%$1.2433.91%
AMECXAmerican Funds The Income Fund of America Class A4.74%$1.2433.91%
UMPQUmpqua Holdings Corporation4.74%$0.8454.13%
NFBKNorthfield Bancorp, Inc.4.73%$0.5454.01%
SBSISouthside Bancshares, Inc.4.72%$1.4462.24%
TNLTravel + Leisure Co.4.72%$3.4054.99%
AIRCApartment Income REIT Corp.4.68%$1.8341.27%
SONSonoco Products Company4.68%$2.0832.95%
OFLXOmega Flex, Inc.4.67%$1.3685.30%
FTAIOFTAI Aviation Ltd.4.65%$1.1825.22%
WDWalker & Dunlop, Inc.4.65%$2.7379.29%
0J2Z.LHA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, Inc.4.63%$1.4766.70%
FLMNFalcon Minerals Corporation4.63%$0.3681.83%
GSRMGSR II Meteora Acquisition Corp.4.62%$0.1532.94%
FBFWXAmerican Funds Retirement Income Portfolio - Moderate Class F-14.61%$0.6379.77%
GPSThe Gap, Inc.4.61%$0.9341.48%
QUADQuad/Graphics, Inc.4.61%$0.2764.56%
BMYBristol-Myers Squibb Company4.59%$2.4582.81%
WTBAWest Bancorporation, Inc.4.56%$0.9952.39%
SCPLSciPlay Corporation4.55%$1.0417.40%
OLPOne Liberty Properties, Inc.4.53%$0.9257.61%
RWAYLRunway Growth Finance Corp. - 74.53%$1.1475.51%
INSWInternational Seaways, Inc.4.52%$2.1248.43%
RWAYZRunway Growth Finance Corp. 8.00% Notes due 20274.52%$1.1475.51%
DDominion Energy, Inc.4.48%$2.6597.13%
TGTTarget Corporation4.48%$4.5054.48%
COLBColumbia Banking System, Inc.4.47%$1.2662.95%
DFPAXBNY Mellon Diversified International Fund Class A4.46%$0.4556.12%
KEYKeyCorp4.46%$0.9495.81%
RPTIXT. Rowe Price Mid-Cap Growth Fund4.46%$4.3859.54%
CGBDCarlyle Secured Lending, Inc.4.45%$0.5655.08%
NEWTPNewtekOne, Inc. Depositary Shares, Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series B4.44%$1.0244.14%
PFCPremier Financial Corp.4.43%$1.2468.07%
BFCBank First Corporation4.40%$5.3073.82%
DUKDuke Energy Corporation4.40%$5.1780.55%
0L77.LSkyworks Solutions, Inc.4.37%$2.7990.67%
ESCAEscalade, Incorporated4.35%$0.6065.28%
DINOHF Sinclair Corporation4.34%$2.0396.43%
LBAILakeland Bancorp, Inc.4.34%$0.5844.96%
CVXChevron Corporation4.32%$6.7495.36%
CVBFCVB Financial Corp.4.31%$0.8154.32%
HTBKHeritage Commerce Corp4.30%$0.5273.66%
EQREquity Residential4.28%$2.6689.76%