Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Haleon plc (HLN.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.35 - $2.01$1.67
Multi-Stage$2.53 - $2.78$2.65
Blended Fair Value$2.16
Current Price$3.74
Upside-42.27%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS-13.13%0.00%0.060.040.290.130.260.130.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--46.91%-85.53%133.62%-51.58%105.82%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.60%1.31%9.14%4.09%8.45%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,522.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)415.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,107.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)304.40190.25114.15
Cash Retained (M)1,107.001,107.001,107.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-304.40-190.25-114.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)802.60916.75992.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9,109.059,109.059,109.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.130.150.15
WACC / Discount Rate7.67%7.67%7.67%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.35$1.67$2.01
Upside / Downside-63.79%-55.38%-46.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,522.001,506.781,491.711,476.801,462.031,447.411,490.83
Payout Ratio27.27%39.81%52.36%64.91%77.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)415.00599.90781.06958.541,132.391,302.671,379.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.67%7.67%7.67%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)551.52557.15562.78
Year 2 PV (M)660.16673.70687.38
Year 3 PV (M)744.83767.87791.37
Year 4 PV (M)808.96842.49877.05
Year 5 PV (M)855.55900.10946.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,380.1620,389.3321,440.11
Equity Value (M)23,001.1924,130.6425,305.18
Shares Outstanding (M)9,109.059,109.059,109.05
Fair Value$2.53$2.65$2.78
Upside / Downside-32.48%-29.17%-25.72%

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