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Genworth Financial, Inc. (GNW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - LifeSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.20 - $4.49$3.84
Multi-Stage$5.35 - $5.89$5.61
Blended Fair Value$4.73
Current Price$8.90
Upside-46.89%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-24.74%0.00%0.050.000.000.000.000.210.230.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-10.31%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.70%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%6.22%5.79%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)220.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)215.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)44.0027.5016.50
Cash Retained (M)215.00215.00215.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-44.00-27.50-16.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)171.00187.50198.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)421.18421.18421.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.410.450.47
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.410.450.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.420.460.48
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-3.51%-2.51%-1.51%
Fair Value$3.20$3.84$4.49
Upside / Downside-64.05%-56.85%-49.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)220.00214.49209.11203.87198.76193.78199.60
Payout Ratio2.27%19.82%37.36%54.91%72.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.0042.5178.13111.94144.01174.40184.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-3.51%-2.51%-1.51%
Year 1 PV (M)38.5638.9639.36
Year 2 PV (M)64.3065.6467.00
Year 3 PV (M)83.5886.2188.89
Year 4 PV (M)97.55101.66105.89
Year 5 PV (M)107.17112.84118.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,860.521,958.952,061.49
Equity Value (M)2,251.692,364.262,481.38
Shares Outstanding (M)421.18421.18421.18
Fair Value$5.35$5.61$5.89
Upside / Downside-39.93%-36.93%-33.80%

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