Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $5,100.33 - $7,800.35 | $6,362.47 |
| Multi-Stage | $11,404.24 - $12,523.90 | $11,953.19 |
| Blended Fair Value | $9,157.83 | |
| Current Price | $13,975.00 | |
| Upside | -34.47% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00 | 1,200.00 | 2,250.00 | 2,600.00 | 0.00 | 2,600.00 | 2,600.00 | 2,600.00 | 2,600.00 | 800.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -100.00% | -46.67% | -13.46% | 0.00% | -100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 225.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.00% | 6.10% | 8.65% | 8.23% | 0.00% | 6.33% | 3.14% | 3.59% | 3.97% | 1.23% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 1,095,373.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 962,044.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 133,329.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 219,074.60 | 136,921.63 | 82,152.98 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 133,329.00 | 133,329.00 | 133,329.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -219,074.60 | -136,921.63 | -82,152.98 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -85,745.60 | -3,592.63 | 51,176.03 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,924.09 | 1,924.09 | 1,924.09 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -44.56 | -1.87 | 26.60 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 500.00 | 500.00 | 500.00 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -44.56 | -1.87 | 26.60 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 455.44 | 498.13 | 526.60 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.75% | 6.75% | 6.75% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Fair Value | $5,100.33 | $6,362.47 | $7,800.35 |
| Upside / Downside | -63.50% | -54.47% | -44.18% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 1,095,373.00 | 1,084,419.27 | 1,073,575.08 | 1,062,839.33 | 1,052,210.93 | 1,041,688.82 | 1,072,939.49 |
| Payout Ratio | 87.83% | 88.26% | 88.70% | 89.13% | 89.57% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 962,044.00 | 957,134.32 | 952,226.62 | 947,321.37 | 942,419.00 | 937,519.94 | 992,469.03 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.75% | 6.75% | 6.75% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 887,548.36 | 896,604.98 | 905,661.60 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 818,801.44 | 835,596.93 | 852,562.94 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 755,361.34 | 778,721.40 | 802,558.18 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 696,819.98 | 725,699.91 | 755,468.38 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 642,800.51 | 676,272.63 | 711,124.82 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 18,141,433.73 | 19,086,100.28 | 20,069,716.06 |
| Equity Value (M) | 21,942,765.37 | 22,998,996.13 | 24,097,091.97 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,924.09 | 1,924.09 | 1,924.09 |
| Fair Value | $11,404.24 | $11,953.19 | $12,523.90 |
| Upside / Downside | -18.40% | -14.47% | -10.38% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLYM | Plymouth Industrial REIT, Inc. | 4.80% | $1.05 | 49.94% |
| SAFT | Safety Insurance Group, Inc. | 4.80% | $3.63 | 61.47% |
| CET | Central Securities Corp. | 4.79% | $2.43 | 13.87% |
| GBLI | Global Indemnity Group, LLC | 4.79% | $1.38 | 70.11% |
| JANIX | Janus Henderson Triton Fund Class D | 4.79% | $1.27 | 67.95% |
| MITN | AG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc. 9.500% Senior Notes due 2029 | 4.77% | $1.21 | 75.90% |
| PRU | Prudential Financial, Inc. | 4.77% | $5.43 | 73.37% |
| IFAFX | The Income Fund of America, Class F-1 Shares | 4.76% | $1.24 | 33.91% |
| AMECX | American Funds The Income Fund of America Class A | 4.74% | $1.24 | 33.91% |
| UMPQ | Umpqua Holdings Corporation | 4.74% | $0.84 | 54.13% |
| NFBK | Northfield Bancorp, Inc. | 4.73% | $0.54 | 54.01% |
| SBSI | Southside Bancshares, Inc. | 4.72% | $1.44 | 62.24% |
| TNL | Travel + Leisure Co. | 4.72% | $3.40 | 54.99% |
| AIRC | Apartment Income REIT Corp. | 4.68% | $1.83 | 41.27% |
| SON | Sonoco Products Company | 4.68% | $2.08 | 32.95% |
| OFLX | Omega Flex, Inc. | 4.67% | $1.36 | 85.30% |
| FTAIO | FTAI Aviation Ltd. | 4.65% | $1.18 | 25.22% |
| WD | Walker & Dunlop, Inc. | 4.65% | $2.73 | 79.29% |
| 0J2Z.L | HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, Inc. | 4.63% | $1.47 | 66.70% |
| FLMN | Falcon Minerals Corporation | 4.63% | $0.36 | 81.83% |
| GSRM | GSR II Meteora Acquisition Corp. | 4.62% | $0.15 | 32.94% |
| FBFWX | American Funds Retirement Income Portfolio - Moderate Class F-1 | 4.61% | $0.63 | 79.77% |
| GPS | The Gap, Inc. | 4.61% | $0.93 | 41.48% |
| QUAD | Quad/Graphics, Inc. | 4.61% | $0.27 | 64.56% |
| BMY | Bristol-Myers Squibb Company | 4.59% | $2.45 | 82.81% |
| WTBA | West Bancorporation, Inc. | 4.56% | $0.99 | 52.39% |
| SCPL | SciPlay Corporation | 4.55% | $1.04 | 17.40% |
| OLP | One Liberty Properties, Inc. | 4.53% | $0.92 | 57.61% |
| RWAYL | Runway Growth Finance Corp. - 7 | 4.53% | $1.14 | 75.51% |
| INSW | International Seaways, Inc. | 4.52% | $2.12 | 48.43% |
| RWAYZ | Runway Growth Finance Corp. 8.00% Notes due 2027 | 4.52% | $1.14 | 75.51% |
| D | Dominion Energy, Inc. | 4.48% | $2.65 | 97.13% |
| TGT | Target Corporation | 4.48% | $4.50 | 54.48% |
| COLB | Columbia Banking System, Inc. | 4.47% | $1.26 | 62.95% |
| DFPAX | BNY Mellon Diversified International Fund Class A | 4.46% | $0.45 | 56.12% |
| KEY | KeyCorp | 4.46% | $0.94 | 95.81% |
| RPTIX | T. Rowe Price Mid-Cap Growth Fund | 4.46% | $4.38 | 59.54% |
| CGBD | Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. | 4.45% | $0.56 | 55.08% |
| NEWTP | NewtekOne, Inc. Depositary Shares, Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series B | 4.44% | $1.02 | 44.14% |
| PFC | Premier Financial Corp. | 4.43% | $1.24 | 68.07% |
| BFC | Bank First Corporation | 4.40% | $5.30 | 73.82% |
| DUK | Duke Energy Corporation | 4.40% | $5.17 | 80.55% |
| 0L77.L | Skyworks Solutions, Inc. | 4.37% | $2.79 | 90.67% |
| ESCA | Escalade, Incorporated | 4.35% | $0.60 | 65.28% |
| DINO | HF Sinclair Corporation | 4.34% | $2.03 | 96.43% |
| LBAI | Lakeland Bancorp, Inc. | 4.34% | $0.58 | 44.96% |
| CVX | Chevron Corporation | 4.32% | $6.74 | 95.36% |
| CVBF | CVB Financial Corp. | 4.31% | $0.81 | 54.32% |
| HTBK | Heritage Commerce Corp | 4.30% | $0.52 | 73.66% |
| EQR | Equity Residential | 4.28% | $2.66 | 89.76% |