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Shift4 Payments, Inc. (FOUR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - InfrastructureSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.27 - $21.98$18.54
Multi-Stage$23.99 - $26.39$25.16
Blended Fair Value$21.85
Current Price$99.11
Upside-77.95%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.010.090.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-94.12%4,150.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.28%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)194.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)180.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)38.9624.3514.61
Cash Retained (M)180.30180.30180.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-38.96-24.35-14.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)141.34155.95165.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)90.1390.1390.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.571.731.84
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.571.731.84
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.731.892.00
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$15.27$18.54$21.98
Upside / Downside-84.59%-81.29%-77.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)194.80192.85190.92189.01187.12185.25190.81
Payout Ratio7.44%23.95%40.47%56.98%73.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14.5046.2077.26107.70137.52166.73176.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)41.9242.3442.77
Year 2 PV (M)63.6164.9166.23
Year 3 PV (M)80.4582.9485.48
Year 4 PV (M)93.2197.07101.05
Year 5 PV (M)102.54107.88113.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,780.031,872.721,969.23
Equity Value (M)2,161.742,267.862,378.19
Shares Outstanding (M)90.1390.1390.13
Fair Value$23.99$25.16$26.39
Upside / Downside-75.80%-74.61%-73.38%

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