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Exponent, Inc. (EXPO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Consulting ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$42.24 - $98.47$61.96
Multi-Stage$33.26 - $36.28$34.74
Blended Fair Value$48.35
Current Price$67.10
Upside-27.94%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202320222021202120202018201720162016
DPS11.68%16.12%1.131.050.950.840.770.650.530.420.360.30
YoY Growth--7.72%9.76%13.98%8.61%18.72%23.08%24.66%16.26%20.03%19.83%
Dividend Yield--1.46%1.27%0.96%0.77%0.78%0.92%0.91%1.08%1.22%1.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)104.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)60.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)43.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.9713.107.86
Cash Retained (M)43.9643.9643.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.97-13.10-7.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)22.9930.8536.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)51.5951.5951.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.450.600.70
LTM Dividend per Share1.181.181.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.450.600.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.631.781.88
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.05%6.05%7.05%
Fair Value$42.24$61.96$98.47
Upside / Downside-37.05%-7.66%46.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)104.84111.18117.91125.05132.62140.65144.87
Payout Ratio58.07%64.46%70.84%77.23%83.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)60.8871.6683.5396.58110.89126.59134.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.05%6.05%7.05%
Year 1 PV (M)65.0765.6966.31
Year 2 PV (M)68.8670.1871.51
Year 3 PV (M)72.2974.3776.50
Year 4 PV (M)75.3778.2881.27
Year 5 PV (M)78.1281.9185.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,356.091,421.871,490.18
Equity Value (M)1,715.791,792.301,871.61
Shares Outstanding (M)51.5951.5951.59
Fair Value$33.26$34.74$36.28
Upside / Downside-50.43%-48.22%-45.93%

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