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Ebro Foods, S.A. (EBRO.MC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$59.08 - $157.52$90.49
Multi-Stage$72.75 - $79.71$76.16
Blended Fair Value$83.33
Current Price$17.30
Upside381.67%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.71%4.90%0.810.630.631.212.580.640.620.610.560.67
YoY Growth--27.46%0.85%-48.02%-53.26%303.07%3.16%1.91%9.45%-16.54%33.44%
Dividend Yield--5.08%4.08%4.28%7.15%13.64%3.32%3.56%3.13%2.80%3.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)396.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)308.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)88.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)79.3449.5929.75
Cash Retained (M)88.0988.0988.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-79.34-49.59-29.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)8.7538.5058.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)153.87153.87153.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.250.38
LTM Dividend per Share2.012.012.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.250.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.062.262.38
WACC / Discount Rate6.29%6.29%6.29%
Growth Rate2.71%3.71%4.71%
Fair Value$59.08$90.49$157.52
Upside / Downside241.53%423.09%810.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)396.69411.39426.64442.45458.85475.85490.13
Payout Ratio77.79%80.24%82.68%85.12%87.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)308.60330.08352.73376.60401.76428.27453.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.29%6.29%6.29%
Growth Rate2.71%3.71%4.71%
Year 1 PV (M)307.55310.54313.54
Year 2 PV (M)306.22312.21318.26
Year 3 PV (M)304.62313.61322.77
Year 4 PV (M)302.79314.76327.07
Year 5 PV (M)300.73315.66331.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,672.1110,152.2410,651.24
Equity Value (M)11,194.0211,719.0112,264.05
Shares Outstanding (M)153.87153.87153.87
Fair Value$72.75$76.16$79.71
Upside / Downside320.53%340.26%360.73%

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