Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $1,971.04 - $5,379.76 | $3,040.19 |
| Multi-Stage | $1,310.30 - $1,433.23 | $1,370.64 |
| Blended Fair Value | $2,205.42 | |
| Current Price | $9,000.00 | |
| Upside | -75.50% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.08% | 0.18% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 1,165,658.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 70,920.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 1,094,738.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 233,131.60 | 145,707.25 | 87,424.35 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 1,094,738.00 | 1,094,738.00 | 1,094,738.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -233,131.60 | -145,707.25 | -87,424.35 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 861,606.40 | 949,030.75 | 1,007,313.65 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 14,184.00 | 14,184.00 | 14,184.00 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 60.74 | 66.91 | 71.02 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 60.74 | 66.91 | 71.02 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 65.74 | 71.91 | 76.02 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.02% | 9.02% | 9.02% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $1,971.04 | $3,040.19 | $5,379.76 |
| Upside / Downside | -78.10% | -66.22% | -40.22% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 1,165,658.00 | 1,241,425.77 | 1,322,118.45 | 1,408,056.14 | 1,499,579.79 | 1,597,052.48 | 1,644,964.05 |
| Payout Ratio | 6.08% | 22.87% | 39.65% | 56.43% | 73.22% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 70,920.00 | 283,880.48 | 524,226.18 | 794,617.43 | 1,097,944.69 | 1,437,347.23 | 1,521,591.75 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.02% | 9.02% | 9.02% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 257,950.37 | 260,395.40 | 262,840.43 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 432,832.61 | 441,076.86 | 449,398.88 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 596,156.09 | 613,269.59 | 630,707.51 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 748,484.82 | 777,269.43 | 806,876.40 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 890,358.41 | 933,363.05 | 978,013.58 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 15,659,450.71 | 16,415,808.03 | 17,201,112.93 |
| Equity Value (M) | 18,585,233.01 | 19,441,182.36 | 20,328,949.73 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 14,184.00 | 14,184.00 | 14,184.00 |
| Fair Value | $1,310.30 | $1,370.64 | $1,433.23 |
| Upside / Downside | -85.44% | -84.77% | -84.08% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLYM | Plymouth Industrial REIT, Inc. | 4.80% | $1.05 | 49.94% |
| SAFT | Safety Insurance Group, Inc. | 4.80% | $3.63 | 61.47% |
| CET | Central Securities Corp. | 4.79% | $2.43 | 13.87% |
| GBLI | Global Indemnity Group, LLC | 4.79% | $1.38 | 70.11% |
| JANIX | Janus Henderson Triton Fund Class D | 4.79% | $1.27 | 67.95% |
| MITN | AG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc. 9.500% Senior Notes due 2029 | 4.77% | $1.21 | 75.90% |
| PRU | Prudential Financial, Inc. | 4.77% | $5.43 | 73.37% |
| IFAFX | The Income Fund of America, Class F-1 Shares | 4.76% | $1.24 | 33.91% |
| AMECX | American Funds The Income Fund of America Class A | 4.74% | $1.24 | 33.91% |
| UMPQ | Umpqua Holdings Corporation | 4.74% | $0.84 | 54.13% |
| NFBK | Northfield Bancorp, Inc. | 4.73% | $0.54 | 54.01% |
| SBSI | Southside Bancshares, Inc. | 4.72% | $1.44 | 62.24% |
| TNL | Travel + Leisure Co. | 4.72% | $3.40 | 54.99% |
| AIRC | Apartment Income REIT Corp. | 4.68% | $1.83 | 41.27% |
| SON | Sonoco Products Company | 4.68% | $2.08 | 32.95% |
| OFLX | Omega Flex, Inc. | 4.67% | $1.36 | 85.30% |
| FTAIO | FTAI Aviation Ltd. | 4.65% | $1.18 | 25.22% |
| WD | Walker & Dunlop, Inc. | 4.65% | $2.73 | 79.29% |
| 0J2Z.L | HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, Inc. | 4.63% | $1.47 | 66.70% |
| FLMN | Falcon Minerals Corporation | 4.63% | $0.36 | 81.83% |
| GSRM | GSR II Meteora Acquisition Corp. | 4.62% | $0.15 | 32.94% |
| FBFWX | American Funds Retirement Income Portfolio - Moderate Class F-1 | 4.61% | $0.63 | 79.77% |
| GPS | The Gap, Inc. | 4.61% | $0.93 | 41.48% |
| QUAD | Quad/Graphics, Inc. | 4.61% | $0.27 | 64.56% |
| BMY | Bristol-Myers Squibb Company | 4.59% | $2.45 | 82.81% |
| WTBA | West Bancorporation, Inc. | 4.56% | $0.99 | 52.39% |
| SCPL | SciPlay Corporation | 4.55% | $1.04 | 17.40% |
| OLP | One Liberty Properties, Inc. | 4.53% | $0.92 | 57.61% |
| RWAYL | Runway Growth Finance Corp. - 7 | 4.53% | $1.14 | 75.51% |
| INSW | International Seaways, Inc. | 4.52% | $2.12 | 48.43% |
| RWAYZ | Runway Growth Finance Corp. 8.00% Notes due 2027 | 4.52% | $1.14 | 75.51% |
| D | Dominion Energy, Inc. | 4.48% | $2.65 | 97.13% |
| TGT | Target Corporation | 4.48% | $4.50 | 54.48% |
| COLB | Columbia Banking System, Inc. | 4.47% | $1.26 | 62.95% |
| DFPAX | BNY Mellon Diversified International Fund Class A | 4.46% | $0.45 | 56.12% |
| KEY | KeyCorp | 4.46% | $0.94 | 95.81% |
| RPTIX | T. Rowe Price Mid-Cap Growth Fund | 4.46% | $4.38 | 59.54% |
| CGBD | Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. | 4.45% | $0.56 | 55.08% |
| NEWTP | NewtekOne, Inc. Depositary Shares, Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series B | 4.44% | $1.02 | 44.14% |
| PFC | Premier Financial Corp. | 4.43% | $1.24 | 68.07% |
| BFC | Bank First Corporation | 4.40% | $5.30 | 73.82% |
| DUK | Duke Energy Corporation | 4.40% | $5.17 | 80.55% |
| 0L77.L | Skyworks Solutions, Inc. | 4.37% | $2.79 | 90.67% |
| ESCA | Escalade, Incorporated | 4.35% | $0.60 | 65.28% |
| DINO | HF Sinclair Corporation | 4.34% | $2.03 | 96.43% |
| LBAI | Lakeland Bancorp, Inc. | 4.34% | $0.58 | 44.96% |
| CVX | Chevron Corporation | 4.32% | $6.74 | 95.36% |
| CVBF | CVB Financial Corp. | 4.31% | $0.81 | 54.32% |
| HTBK | Heritage Commerce Corp | 4.30% | $0.52 | 73.66% |
| EQR | Equity Residential | 4.28% | $2.66 | 89.76% |