Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $2,335.96 - $3,629.67 | $2,934.12 |
| Multi-Stage | $5,498.90 - $6,050.48 | $5,769.28 |
| Blended Fair Value | $4,351.70 | |
| Current Price | $4,600.00 | |
| Upside | -5.40% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 0.00% | 0.00% | 90.00 | 70.00 | 63.02 | 50.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 28.58% | 11.08% | 25.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 1.98% | 1.41% | 1.36% | 1.44% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 1,964,558.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 1,190,307.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 774,251.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 392,911.60 | 245,569.75 | 147,341.85 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 774,251.00 | 774,251.00 | 774,251.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -392,911.60 | -245,569.75 | -147,341.85 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 381,339.40 | 528,681.25 | 626,909.15 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 7,934.68 | 7,934.68 | 7,934.68 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 48.06 | 66.63 | 79.01 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 150.01 | 150.01 | 150.01 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 48.06 | 66.63 | 79.01 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 198.07 | 216.64 | 229.02 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.31% | 6.31% | 6.31% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Fair Value | $2,335.96 | $2,934.12 | $3,629.67 |
| Upside / Downside | -49.22% | -36.21% | -21.09% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 1,964,558.00 | 1,944,912.42 | 1,925,463.30 | 1,906,208.66 | 1,887,146.58 | 1,868,275.11 | 1,924,323.36 |
| Payout Ratio | 60.59% | 66.47% | 72.35% | 78.24% | 84.12% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 1,190,307.00 | 1,292,807.38 | 1,393,138.72 | 1,491,334.15 | 1,587,426.37 | 1,681,447.60 | 1,779,999.11 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.31% | 6.31% | 6.31% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 1,203,792.83 | 1,216,076.43 | 1,228,360.03 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 1,207,897.89 | 1,232,674.64 | 1,257,702.93 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 1,204,006.29 | 1,241,241.00 | 1,279,235.58 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 1,193,343.06 | 1,242,801.55 | 1,293,781.71 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 1,176,990.59 | 1,238,279.22 | 1,302,094.82 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 37,646,009.55 | 39,606,324.61 | 41,647,464.78 |
| Equity Value (M) | 43,632,040.22 | 45,777,397.46 | 48,008,639.86 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 7,934.68 | 7,934.68 | 7,934.68 |
| Fair Value | $5,498.90 | $5,769.28 | $6,050.48 |
| Upside / Downside | 19.54% | 25.42% | 31.53% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLYM | Plymouth Industrial REIT, Inc. | 4.80% | $1.05 | 49.94% |
| SAFT | Safety Insurance Group, Inc. | 4.80% | $3.63 | 61.47% |
| CET | Central Securities Corp. | 4.79% | $2.43 | 13.87% |
| GBLI | Global Indemnity Group, LLC | 4.79% | $1.38 | 70.11% |
| JANIX | Janus Henderson Triton Fund Class D | 4.79% | $1.27 | 67.95% |
| MITN | AG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc. 9.500% Senior Notes due 2029 | 4.77% | $1.21 | 75.90% |
| PRU | Prudential Financial, Inc. | 4.77% | $5.43 | 73.37% |
| IFAFX | The Income Fund of America, Class F-1 Shares | 4.76% | $1.24 | 33.91% |
| AMECX | American Funds The Income Fund of America Class A | 4.74% | $1.24 | 33.91% |
| UMPQ | Umpqua Holdings Corporation | 4.74% | $0.84 | 54.13% |
| NFBK | Northfield Bancorp, Inc. | 4.73% | $0.54 | 54.01% |
| SBSI | Southside Bancshares, Inc. | 4.72% | $1.44 | 62.24% |
| TNL | Travel + Leisure Co. | 4.72% | $3.40 | 54.99% |
| AIRC | Apartment Income REIT Corp. | 4.68% | $1.83 | 41.27% |
| SON | Sonoco Products Company | 4.68% | $2.08 | 32.95% |
| OFLX | Omega Flex, Inc. | 4.67% | $1.36 | 85.30% |
| FTAIO | FTAI Aviation Ltd. | 4.65% | $1.18 | 25.22% |
| WD | Walker & Dunlop, Inc. | 4.65% | $2.73 | 79.29% |
| 0J2Z.L | HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, Inc. | 4.63% | $1.47 | 66.70% |
| FLMN | Falcon Minerals Corporation | 4.63% | $0.36 | 81.83% |
| GSRM | GSR II Meteora Acquisition Corp. | 4.62% | $0.15 | 32.94% |
| FBFWX | American Funds Retirement Income Portfolio - Moderate Class F-1 | 4.61% | $0.63 | 79.77% |
| GPS | The Gap, Inc. | 4.61% | $0.93 | 41.48% |
| QUAD | Quad/Graphics, Inc. | 4.61% | $0.27 | 64.56% |
| BMY | Bristol-Myers Squibb Company | 4.59% | $2.45 | 82.81% |
| WTBA | West Bancorporation, Inc. | 4.56% | $0.99 | 52.39% |
| SCPL | SciPlay Corporation | 4.55% | $1.04 | 17.40% |
| OLP | One Liberty Properties, Inc. | 4.53% | $0.92 | 57.61% |
| RWAYL | Runway Growth Finance Corp. - 7 | 4.53% | $1.14 | 75.51% |
| INSW | International Seaways, Inc. | 4.52% | $2.12 | 48.43% |
| RWAYZ | Runway Growth Finance Corp. 8.00% Notes due 2027 | 4.52% | $1.14 | 75.51% |
| D | Dominion Energy, Inc. | 4.48% | $2.65 | 97.13% |
| TGT | Target Corporation | 4.48% | $4.50 | 54.48% |
| COLB | Columbia Banking System, Inc. | 4.47% | $1.26 | 62.95% |
| DFPAX | BNY Mellon Diversified International Fund Class A | 4.46% | $0.45 | 56.12% |
| KEY | KeyCorp | 4.46% | $0.94 | 95.81% |
| RPTIX | T. Rowe Price Mid-Cap Growth Fund | 4.46% | $4.38 | 59.54% |
| CGBD | Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. | 4.45% | $0.56 | 55.08% |
| NEWTP | NewtekOne, Inc. Depositary Shares, Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series B | 4.44% | $1.02 | 44.14% |
| PFC | Premier Financial Corp. | 4.43% | $1.24 | 68.07% |
| BFC | Bank First Corporation | 4.40% | $5.30 | 73.82% |
| DUK | Duke Energy Corporation | 4.40% | $5.17 | 80.55% |
| 0L77.L | Skyworks Solutions, Inc. | 4.37% | $2.79 | 90.67% |
| ESCA | Escalade, Incorporated | 4.35% | $0.60 | 65.28% |
| DINO | HF Sinclair Corporation | 4.34% | $2.03 | 96.43% |
| LBAI | Lakeland Bancorp, Inc. | 4.34% | $0.58 | 44.96% |
| CVX | Chevron Corporation | 4.32% | $6.74 | 95.36% |
| CVBF | CVB Financial Corp. | 4.31% | $0.81 | 54.32% |
| HTBK | Heritage Commerce Corp | 4.30% | $0.52 | 73.66% |
| EQR | Equity Residential | 4.28% | $2.66 | 89.76% |