Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Empresas CMPC S.A. (CMPC.SN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Paper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.32 - $2.15$1.69
Multi-Stage$1.45 - $1.58$1.52
Blended Fair Value$1.60
Current Price$1.52
Upside5.50%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.66%16.09%0.100.080.190.200.010.080.050.000.010.01
YoY Growth--24.07%-57.48%-1.83%2,840.29%-91.75%70.54%2,390.91%-86.85%21.02%-47.60%
Dividend Yield--6.21%4.17%11.64%10.64%0.21%3.81%1.34%0.05%0.60%0.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)288.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)123.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)164.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)57.6336.0221.61
Cash Retained (M)164.22164.22164.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-57.63-36.02-21.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)106.59128.20142.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,499.322,499.322,499.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.090.100.11
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate2.80%3.80%4.80%
Fair Value$1.32$1.69$2.15
Upside / Downside-13.29%11.22%41.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)288.13299.07310.43322.22334.45347.15357.57
Payout Ratio43.01%52.41%61.80%71.20%80.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)123.92156.73191.86229.43269.57312.44330.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate2.80%3.80%4.80%
Year 1 PV (M)141.12142.49143.87
Year 2 PV (M)155.55158.59161.66
Year 3 PV (M)167.48172.42177.45
Year 4 PV (M)177.19184.19191.39
Year 5 PV (M)184.91194.08203.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,800.162,939.033,083.36
Equity Value (M)3,626.413,790.803,961.33
Shares Outstanding (M)2,499.322,499.322,499.32
Fair Value$1.45$1.52$1.58
Upside / Downside-4.54%-0.22%4.27%

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