Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Aryt Industries Ltd. (ARYT.TA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30.09 - $66.71$43.39
Multi-Stage$21.31 - $23.29$22.28
Blended Fair Value$32.83
Current Price$20.40
Upside60.95%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.07%0.00%0.120.090.130.130.130.180.070.510.000.00
YoY Growth--31.30%-30.77%0.00%0.00%-27.78%157.13%-86.54%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.69%2.19%7.05%10.05%10.21%14.49%4.12%27.16%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)149.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)139.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)29.9318.7111.23
Cash Retained (M)139.95139.95139.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-29.93-18.71-11.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)110.02121.24128.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)98.3698.3698.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.121.231.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.121.231.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.221.331.41
WACC / Discount Rate9.77%9.77%9.77%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$30.09$43.39$66.71
Upside / Downside47.50%112.68%227.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)149.67159.40169.76180.80192.55205.06211.22
Payout Ratio6.49%23.19%39.90%56.60%73.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9.7236.9767.73102.33141.14184.56195.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.77%9.77%9.77%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)33.3733.6834.00
Year 2 PV (M)55.1656.2157.27
Year 3 PV (M)75.2177.3779.57
Year 4 PV (M)93.6197.21100.92
Year 5 PV (M)110.47115.81121.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,727.931,811.391,898.04
Equity Value (M)2,095.752,191.672,291.14
Shares Outstanding (M)98.3698.3698.36
Fair Value$21.31$22.28$23.29
Upside / Downside4.44%9.22%14.18%

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