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Japan Real Estate Investment Corporation (8952.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - OfficeSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$153,568.60 - $256,526.32$198,876.59
Multi-Stage$265,019.25 - $290,647.79$277,589.25
Blended Fair Value$238,232.92
Current Price$124,500.00
Upside91.35%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.006,053.845,637.935,537.995,495.190.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---100.00%7.38%1.80%0.78%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%5.30%4.84%4.64%4.11%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)74,145.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)52,022.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)22,122.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14,829.039,268.155,560.89
Cash Retained (M)22,122.7522,122.7522,122.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-14,829.03-9,268.15-5,560.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)7,293.7212,854.6116,561.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5.695.695.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share1,281.512,258.572,909.93
LTM Dividend per Share9,140.399,140.399,140.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share1,281.512,258.572,909.93
(=) Adjusted Dividend10,421.9011,398.9512,050.32
WACC / Discount Rate7.04%7.04%7.04%
Growth Rate0.24%1.24%2.24%
Fair Value$153,568.60$198,876.59$256,526.32
Upside / Downside23.35%59.74%106.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)74,145.1675,063.0675,992.3276,933.0977,885.5078,849.7081,215.19
Payout Ratio70.16%74.13%78.10%82.07%86.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)52,022.4155,644.5059,348.2963,135.2767,006.9170,964.7375,124.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.04%7.04%7.04%
Growth Rate0.24%1.24%2.24%
Year 1 PV (M)51,470.9951,984.4852,497.97
Year 2 PV (M)50,779.5551,797.7852,826.12
Year 3 PV (M)49,968.1151,478.5653,019.15
Year 4 PV (M)49,054.7151,041.7353,088.51
Year 5 PV (M)48,055.6050,500.9953,044.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,259,025.461,323,092.891,389,742.32
Equity Value (M)1,508,354.421,579,896.431,654,219.00
Shares Outstanding (M)5.695.695.69
Fair Value$265,019.25$277,589.25$290,647.79
Upside / Downside112.87%122.96%133.45%

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