Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Hangzhou Kelin Electric Co., Ltd. (688611.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.90 - $12.79$8.45
Multi-Stage$26.43 - $29.19$27.78
Blended Fair Value$18.11
Current Price$40.66
Upside-55.45%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-14.83%0.00%0.160.160.670.000.000.360.000.000.000.20
YoY Growth--2.92%-76.63%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.49%1.06%3.38%0.00%0.00%1.76%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)41.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)23.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)18.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.245.153.09
Cash Retained (M)18.0618.0618.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.24-5.15-3.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)9.8212.9114.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)124.50124.50124.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.290.31
WACC / Discount Rate2.39%2.39%2.39%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5.90$8.45$12.79
Upside / Downside-85.48%-79.23%-68.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)41.2140.7940.3939.9839.5839.1940.36
Payout Ratio56.17%62.93%69.70%76.47%83.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)23.1425.6728.1530.5732.9535.2737.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.39%2.39%2.39%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)24.8225.0725.33
Year 2 PV (M)26.3126.8527.39
Year 3 PV (M)27.6228.4829.35
Year 4 PV (M)28.7829.9731.20
Year 5 PV (M)29.7831.3332.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,152.753,316.923,487.86
Equity Value (M)3,290.063,458.623,634.08
Shares Outstanding (M)124.50124.50124.50
Fair Value$26.43$27.78$29.19
Upside / Downside-35.00%-31.68%-28.21%

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