Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Ihara Science Corporation (5999.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$60,268.52 - $71,006.53$66,543.52
Multi-Stage$16,704.06 - $18,321.17$17,497.59
Blended Fair Value$42,020.55
Current Price$2,200.13
Upside1,809.91%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2022202120202019201820172016201520142013
DPS15.10%10.98%45.5144.7742.3742.1832.6822.5223.8221.6916.0616.06
YoY Growth--1.65%5.66%0.44%29.10%45.08%-5.43%9.79%35.06%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.15%2.45%2.95%3.15%1.42%1.23%3.16%2.37%1.98%2.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,868.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)117.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,751.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)773.60483.50290.10
Cash Retained (M)3,751.003,751.003,751.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-773.60-483.50-290.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,977.403,267.503,460.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10.8310.8310.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share274.83301.61319.46
LTM Dividend per Share10.8010.8010.80
(+) Excess Retained per Share274.83301.61319.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend285.63312.41330.26
WACC / Discount Rate5.20%5.20%5.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$60,268.52$66,543.52$71,006.53
Upside / Downside2,639.32%2,924.53%3,127.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,868.004,119.424,387.184,672.354,976.055,299.505,458.48
Payout Ratio3.02%20.42%37.81%55.21%72.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)117.00841.181,659.012,579.603,612.864,769.555,049.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.20%5.20%5.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)792.12799.62807.13
Year 2 PV (M)1,471.121,499.141,527.43
Year 3 PV (M)2,154.032,215.862,278.87
Year 4 PV (M)2,840.862,950.113,062.49
Year 5 PV (M)3,531.633,702.213,879.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)170,173.53178,392.98186,927.00
Equity Value (M)180,963.29189,559.93198,482.23
Shares Outstanding (M)10.8310.8310.83
Fair Value$16,704.06$17,497.59$18,321.17
Upside / Downside659.23%695.30%732.73%

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