Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Hunan Valin Wire & Cable Co.,Ltd. (001208.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$36.18 - $42.63$39.95
Multi-Stage$23.96 - $26.29$25.10
Blended Fair Value$32.53
Current Price$12.26
Upside165.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS22.39%0.00%0.100.090.070.140.030.030.050.060.000.00
YoY Growth--1.22%34.01%-48.38%383.29%-18.83%-35.95%-16.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.89%1.16%0.69%1.17%0.53%0.66%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)114.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)45.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)69.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.9914.378.62
Cash Retained (M)69.3569.3569.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.99-14.37-8.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)46.3654.9860.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)536.37536.37536.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.190.20
WACC / Discount Rate2.89%2.89%2.89%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$36.18$39.95$42.63
Upside / Downside195.11%225.84%247.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)114.96122.44130.40138.87147.90157.51162.24
Payout Ratio39.68%49.74%59.81%69.87%79.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)45.6260.9077.9997.03118.22141.76150.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.89%2.89%2.89%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)58.6459.1959.75
Year 2 PV (M)72.2973.6775.06
Year 3 PV (M)86.6089.0891.61
Year 4 PV (M)101.58105.49109.51
Year 5 PV (M)117.27122.94128.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,414.6113,014.2413,636.82
Equity Value (M)12,850.9813,464.6014,101.56
Shares Outstanding (M)536.37536.37536.37
Fair Value$23.96$25.10$26.29
Upside / Downside95.43%104.76%114.44%

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