Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Nanfang Black Sesame Group Co., Ltd. (000716.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.53 - $0.81$0.66
Multi-Stage$0.98 - $1.08$1.03
Blended Fair Value$0.84
Current Price$6.10
Upside-86.17%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.99%4.17%0.130.100.120.130.020.130.180.090.120.09
YoY Growth--29.42%-16.82%-6.88%543.41%-85.25%-24.71%109.31%-26.35%33.95%1.77%
Dividend Yield--2.04%1.93%1.39%3.77%0.63%3.11%3.43%1.62%1.44%1.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)42.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)40.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)2.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.565.353.21
Cash Retained (M)2.572.572.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.56-5.35-3.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)-5.99-2.78-0.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)748.85748.85748.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.050.050.05
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate-1.00%0.00%1.00%
Fair Value$0.53$0.66$0.81
Upside / Downside-91.38%-89.22%-86.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)42.8042.8142.8142.8142.8142.8144.10
Payout Ratio93.99%93.19%92.39%91.59%90.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)40.2339.8939.5539.2138.8738.5340.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate-1.00%0.00%1.00%
Year 1 PV (M)36.7037.0737.44
Year 2 PV (M)33.4734.1534.84
Year 3 PV (M)30.5331.4732.42
Year 4 PV (M)27.8428.9930.16
Year 5 PV (M)25.3926.7028.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)582.79612.82644.08
Equity Value (M)736.73771.19807.00
Shares Outstanding (M)748.85748.85748.85
Fair Value$0.98$1.03$1.08
Upside / Downside-83.87%-83.12%-82.33%

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