Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co., Ltd. (000021.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Computer HardwareSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$36.61 - $130.21$119.76
Multi-Stage$16.63 - $18.19$17.40
Blended Fair Value$68.58
Current Price$27.87
Upside146.07%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.48%20.06%0.290.130.150.160.060.090.050.050.050.05
YoY Growth--125.55%-13.33%-6.25%182.86%-40.00%100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.57%0.92%0.89%1.41%0.29%0.55%0.48%0.54%0.51%0.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,024.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)369.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)654.72
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)204.94128.0976.85
Cash Retained (M)654.72654.72654.72
(-) Cash Required (M)-204.94-128.09-76.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)449.78526.64577.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,565.001,565.001,565.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.340.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.340.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.520.570.61
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$36.61$119.76$130.21
Upside / Downside31.36%329.72%367.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,024.701,091.301,162.241,237.781,318.241,403.921,446.04
Payout Ratio36.11%46.88%57.66%68.44%79.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)369.97511.65670.19847.171,044.321,263.531,337.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)473.65478.14482.63
Year 2 PV (M)574.32585.26596.30
Year 3 PV (M)672.06691.36711.01
Year 4 PV (M)766.93796.43826.76
Year 5 PV (M)858.99900.48943.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,679.7723,775.2124,912.58
Equity Value (M)26,025.7327,226.8728,472.85
Shares Outstanding (M)1,565.001,565.001,565.00
Fair Value$16.63$17.40$18.19
Upside / Downside-40.33%-37.58%-34.72%

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