Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

PT Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk (BBTN.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,449.22 - $6,410.84$4,661.98
Multi-Stage$4,004.93 - $4,389.96$4,193.83
Blended Fair Value$4,427.91
Current Price$1,285.00
Upside244.58%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.51%4.10%49.8943.3916.930.001.4940.0143.1437.3226.3815.90
YoY Growth--14.97%156.29%0.00%-100.00%-96.27%-7.25%15.60%41.49%65.91%-52.39%
Dividend Yield--5.64%2.91%1.38%0.00%0.09%4.94%1.88%1.11%1.21%0.94%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,227,615.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)751,833.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,475,782.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)645,523.00403,451.88242,071.13
Cash Retained (M)2,475,782.002,475,782.002,475,782.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-645,523.00-403,451.88-242,071.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,830,259.002,072,330.132,233,710.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)14,034.4414,034.4414,034.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share130.41147.66159.16
LTM Dividend per Share53.5753.5753.57
(+) Excess Retained per Share130.41147.66159.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend183.98201.23212.73
WACC / Discount Rate7.98%7.98%7.98%
Growth Rate2.51%3.51%4.51%
Fair Value$3,449.22$4,661.98$6,410.84
Upside / Downside168.42%262.80%398.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,227,615.003,340,929.343,458,221.893,579,632.323,705,305.213,835,390.183,950,451.88
Payout Ratio23.29%36.64%49.98%63.32%76.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)751,833.001,223,949.821,728,289.902,266,533.892,840,440.753,451,851.163,654,167.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.98%7.98%7.98%
Growth Rate2.51%3.51%4.51%
Year 1 PV (M)1,122,559.361,133,510.011,144,460.66
Year 2 PV (M)1,453,811.151,482,313.571,511,092.67
Year 3 PV (M)1,748,635.641,800,310.671,852,993.86
Year 4 PV (M)2,009,872.682,089,453.542,171,374.59
Year 5 PV (M)2,240,167.932,351,585.602,467,393.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)47,631,867.4150,000,900.3852,463,271.03
Equity Value (M)56,206,914.1758,858,073.7761,610,585.82
Shares Outstanding (M)14,034.4414,034.4414,034.44
Fair Value$4,004.93$4,193.83$4,389.96
Upside / Downside211.67%226.37%241.63%

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