Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Ningbo Boway Alloy Material Company Limited (601137.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CopperSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$84.67 - $257.66$241.46
Multi-Stage$35.07 - $38.37$36.69
Blended Fair Value$139.08
Current Price$25.83
Upside438.43%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS57.26%24.55%0.540.340.270.270.230.060.160.100.060.06
YoY Growth--56.37%25.47%0.06%21.83%302.18%-65.28%54.59%68.18%1.38%2.11%
Dividend Yield--2.68%1.87%1.75%1.74%2.11%0.46%1.68%1.00%0.46%0.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,136.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)490.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)646.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)227.33142.0885.25
Cash Retained (M)646.12646.12646.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-227.33-142.08-85.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)418.79504.04560.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)877.35877.35877.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.480.570.64
LTM Dividend per Share0.560.560.56
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.480.570.64
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.041.131.20
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$84.67$241.46$257.66
Upside / Downside227.81%834.81%897.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,136.671,210.551,289.241,373.041,462.291,557.341,604.06
Payout Ratio43.16%52.53%61.89%71.26%80.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)490.55635.85797.96978.471,179.061,401.601,483.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)589.82595.41601.00
Year 2 PV (M)686.62699.70712.90
Year 3 PV (M)780.99803.41826.25
Year 4 PV (M)872.98906.55941.08
Year 5 PV (M)962.631,009.121,057.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)26,878.0028,176.2229,524.12
Equity Value (M)30,771.0332,190.4133,662.75
Shares Outstanding (M)877.35877.35877.35
Fair Value$35.07$36.69$38.37
Upside / Downside35.78%42.05%48.54%

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