Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Sichuan Expressway Company Limited (601107.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Infrastructure OperationsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$37.98 - $63.78$59.77
Multi-Stage$10.67 - $11.66$11.16
Blended Fair Value$35.47
Current Price$5.56
Upside537.90%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.95%8.70%0.410.330.330.200.210.220.230.230.210.21
YoY Growth--26.10%0.80%58.90%-3.31%-1.63%-5.06%-0.87%10.62%-2.57%18.22%
Dividend Yield--7.85%6.31%8.57%4.51%6.46%6.32%5.05%5.79%3.84%4.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,636.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,635.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)327.22204.51122.71
Cash Retained (M)0.760.760.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-327.22-204.51-122.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)-326.46-203.76-121.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,101.305,101.305,101.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.06-0.04-0.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.06-0.04-0.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.280.30
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$37.98$59.77$63.78
Upside / Downside583.12%975.08%1,047.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,636.101,742.441,855.701,976.322,104.782,241.592,308.84
Payout Ratio99.95%97.96%95.97%93.98%91.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,635.341,706.951,780.961,857.381,936.212,017.432,135.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,592.021,607.111,622.20
Year 2 PV (M)1,549.201,578.711,608.49
Year 3 PV (M)1,506.881,550.141,594.22
Year 4 PV (M)1,465.071,521.411,579.36
Year 5 PV (M)1,423.741,492.511,563.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)46,913.7249,179.6751,532.35
Equity Value (M)54,450.6356,929.5459,500.52
Shares Outstanding (M)5,101.305,101.305,101.30
Fair Value$10.67$11.16$11.66
Upside / Downside91.98%100.72%109.78%

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