DDM Analysis: GRG.L

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$119.05 - $547.55	$269.52
Multi-Stage	$63.22 - $69.10	$66.11
Blended Fair Value	$167.81
Current Price	$19.54
Upside	758.82%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-1.72%	12.94%	0.65	0.59	0.96	0.15	0.00	0.70	0.32	0.31	0.30	0.43
YoY Growth	-	-	8.72%	-38.27%	543.79%	0.00%	-100.00%	117.92%	2.79%	4.04%	-29.23%	123.37%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.32%	2.27%	4.10%	0.45%	0.00%	3.06%	2.55%	2.25%	3.11%	3.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	282.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	133.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)	148.90

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	56.42	35.26	21.16
Cash Retained (M)	148.90	148.90	148.90
(-) Cash Required (M)	-56.42	-35.26	-21.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)	92.48	113.64	127.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	102.46	102.46	102.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.90	1.11	1.25
LTM Dividend per Share	1.30	1.30	1.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.90	1.11	1.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.20	2.41	2.55
WACC / Discount Rate	7.45%	7.45%	7.45%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$119.05	$269.52	$547.55
Upside / Downside	509.25%	1,279.32%	2,702.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	282.10	300.44	319.96	340.76	362.91	386.50	398.10
Payout Ratio	47.22%	55.77%	64.33%	72.89%	81.44%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	133.20	167.56	205.83	248.37	295.57	347.85	368.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.45%	7.45%	7.45%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	154.48	155.94	157.41
Year 2 PV (M)	174.94	178.27	181.64
Year 3 PV (M)	194.61	200.20	205.89
Year 4 PV (M)	213.51	221.72	230.16
Year 5 PV (M)	231.65	242.84	254.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)	5,508.36	5,774.41	6,050.65
Equity Value (M)	6,477.55	6,773.39	7,080.21
Shares Outstanding (M)	102.46	102.46	102.46
Fair Value	$63.22	$66.11	$69.10
Upside / Downside	223.54%	238.32%	253.64%

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Greggs plc (GRG.L)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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