Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Greggs plc (GRG.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$119.05 - $547.55$269.52
Multi-Stage$63.22 - $69.10$66.11
Blended Fair Value$167.81
Current Price$19.54
Upside758.82%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.72%12.94%0.650.590.960.150.000.700.320.310.300.43
YoY Growth--8.72%-38.27%543.79%0.00%-100.00%117.92%2.79%4.04%-29.23%123.37%
Dividend Yield--2.32%2.27%4.10%0.45%0.00%3.06%2.55%2.25%3.11%3.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)282.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)133.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)148.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)56.4235.2621.16
Cash Retained (M)148.90148.90148.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-56.42-35.26-21.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)92.48113.64127.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)102.46102.46102.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.901.111.25
LTM Dividend per Share1.301.301.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.901.111.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.202.412.55
WACC / Discount Rate7.45%7.45%7.45%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$119.05$269.52$547.55
Upside / Downside509.25%1,279.32%2,702.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)282.10300.44319.96340.76362.91386.50398.10
Payout Ratio47.22%55.77%64.33%72.89%81.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)133.20167.56205.83248.37295.57347.85368.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.45%7.45%7.45%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)154.48155.94157.41
Year 2 PV (M)174.94178.27181.64
Year 3 PV (M)194.61200.20205.89
Year 4 PV (M)213.51221.72230.16
Year 5 PV (M)231.65242.84254.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,508.365,774.416,050.65
Equity Value (M)6,477.556,773.397,080.21
Shares Outstanding (M)102.46102.46102.46
Fair Value$63.22$66.11$69.10
Upside / Downside223.54%238.32%253.64%

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