Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Konoike Transport Co., Ltd. (9025.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6,881.63 - $26,571.78$11,643.52
Multi-Stage$4,247.07 - $4,646.93$4,443.34
Blended Fair Value$8,043.43
Current Price$3,280.00
Upside145.23%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS15.35%14.23%75.9747.9335.9121.8426.6837.1938.4538.0636.4429.73
YoY Growth--58.49%33.47%64.45%-18.15%-28.27%-3.28%1.04%4.45%22.56%48.03%
Dividend Yield--2.58%2.03%2.18%1.72%2.20%3.20%2.18%2.28%2.38%2.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12,456.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,087.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)11,369.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,491.201,557.00934.20
Cash Retained (M)11,369.0011,369.0011,369.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,491.20-1,557.00-934.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)8,877.809,812.0010,434.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)53.0853.0853.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share167.26184.86196.60
LTM Dividend per Share20.4820.4820.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share167.26184.86196.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend187.74205.34217.08
WACC / Discount Rate8.38%8.38%8.38%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6,881.63$11,643.52$26,571.78
Upside / Downside109.81%254.99%710.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12,456.0013,265.6414,127.9115,046.2216,024.2217,065.8017,577.77
Payout Ratio8.73%24.98%41.24%57.49%73.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,087.003,313.945,825.798,650.1811,817.1215,359.2216,259.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.38%8.38%8.38%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,029.043,057.753,086.47
Year 2 PV (M)4,867.174,959.875,053.45
Year 3 PV (M)6,605.536,795.156,988.36
Year 4 PV (M)8,248.128,565.328,891.58
Year 5 PV (M)9,798.8110,272.1010,763.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)192,873.00202,188.84211,861.22
Equity Value (M)225,421.67235,839.03246,644.58
Shares Outstanding (M)53.0853.0853.08
Fair Value$4,247.07$4,443.34$4,646.93
Upside / Downside29.48%35.47%41.67%

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