Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Konoike Transport Co., Ltd. (9025.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,588.14 - $4,128.10$3,287.14
Multi-Stage$2,079.39 - $2,267.60$2,171.81
Blended Fair Value$2,729.48
Current Price$3,280.00
Upside-16.78%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS15.35%14.23%75.9747.9335.9121.8426.6837.1938.4538.0636.4429.73
YoY Growth--58.49%33.47%64.45%-18.15%-28.27%-3.28%1.04%4.45%22.56%48.03%
Dividend Yield--2.58%2.03%2.18%1.72%2.20%3.20%2.18%2.28%2.38%2.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12,456.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,087.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)11,369.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,491.201,557.00934.20
Cash Retained (M)11,369.0011,369.0011,369.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,491.20-1,557.00-934.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)8,877.809,812.0010,434.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)53.0853.0853.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share167.26184.86196.60
LTM Dividend per Share20.4820.4820.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share167.26184.86196.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend187.74205.34217.08
WACC / Discount Rate13.15%13.15%13.15%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2,588.14$3,287.14$4,128.10
Upside / Downside-21.09%0.22%25.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12,456.0013,265.6414,127.9115,046.2216,024.2217,065.8017,577.77
Payout Ratio8.73%24.98%41.24%57.49%73.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,087.003,313.945,825.798,650.1811,817.1215,359.2216,259.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate13.15%13.15%13.15%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,901.232,928.732,956.23
Year 2 PV (M)4,465.084,550.124,635.97
Year 3 PV (M)5,804.125,970.736,140.51
Year 4 PV (M)6,941.617,208.567,483.14
Year 5 PV (M)7,898.688,280.198,676.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)82,357.0186,334.8890,465.00
Equity Value (M)110,367.72115,273.22120,357.15
Shares Outstanding (M)53.0853.0853.08
Fair Value$2,079.39$2,171.81$2,267.60
Upside / Downside-36.60%-33.79%-30.87%

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