Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Shenzhen Sine Electric Co.,Ltd. (688395.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.51 - $9.39$7.20
Multi-Stage$5.58 - $6.09$5.83
Blended Fair Value$6.51
Current Price$25.18
Upside-74.13%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.69%2.93%0.200.160.260.200.010.080.120.300.150.00
YoY Growth--25.11%-37.50%28.00%3,143.96%-91.78%-35.48%-61.25%100.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--0.91%0.93%1.28%0.94%0.02%0.21%0.33%0.85%0.42%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)36.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)23.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.344.592.75
Cash Retained (M)23.6723.6723.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.34-4.59-2.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)16.3319.0820.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)84.7784.7784.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.230.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.230.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate3.46%4.46%5.46%
Fair Value$5.51$7.20$9.39
Upside / Downside-78.10%-71.42%-62.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)36.6838.3240.0341.8243.6845.6347.00
Payout Ratio35.48%46.38%57.29%68.19%79.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13.0117.7722.9328.5234.5541.0743.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate3.46%4.46%5.46%
Year 1 PV (M)16.0116.1616.32
Year 2 PV (M)18.6018.9719.33
Year 3 PV (M)20.8421.4522.07
Year 4 PV (M)22.7423.6324.55
Year 5 PV (M)24.3525.5526.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)370.30388.55407.51
Equity Value (M)472.84494.31516.57
Shares Outstanding (M)84.7784.7784.77
Fair Value$5.58$5.83$6.09
Upside / Downside-77.85%-76.84%-75.80%

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