Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Shenzhen Sine Electric Co.,Ltd. (688395.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.31 - $18.27$11.95
Multi-Stage$8.33 - $9.12$8.72
Blended Fair Value$10.33
Current Price$25.18
Upside-58.96%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.69%2.93%0.200.160.260.200.010.080.120.300.150.00
YoY Growth--25.11%-37.50%28.00%3,143.96%-91.78%-35.48%-61.25%100.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--0.91%0.93%1.28%0.94%0.02%0.21%0.33%0.85%0.42%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)36.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)23.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.344.592.75
Cash Retained (M)23.6723.6723.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.34-4.59-2.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)16.3319.0820.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)84.7784.7784.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.230.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.230.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate7.77%7.77%7.77%
Growth Rate3.46%4.46%5.46%
Fair Value$8.31$11.95$18.27
Upside / Downside-67.00%-52.55%-27.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)36.6838.3240.0341.8243.6845.6347.00
Payout Ratio35.48%46.38%57.29%68.19%79.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13.0117.7722.9328.5234.5541.0743.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.77%7.77%7.77%
Growth Rate3.46%4.46%5.46%
Year 1 PV (M)16.3316.4916.65
Year 2 PV (M)19.3719.7420.12
Year 3 PV (M)22.1322.7823.44
Year 4 PV (M)24.6425.6126.60
Year 5 PV (M)26.9228.2529.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)596.81626.21656.76
Equity Value (M)706.20739.08773.20
Shares Outstanding (M)84.7784.7784.77
Fair Value$8.33$8.72$9.12
Upside / Downside-66.92%-65.38%-63.78%

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