Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co., Ltd. (601965.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.26 - $8.81$7.52
Multi-Stage$5.21 - $5.67$5.44
Blended Fair Value$6.48
Current Price$17.88
Upside-63.76%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.25%10.88%0.360.300.300.300.250.250.200.150.100.06
YoY Growth--19.67%1.53%-0.11%20.10%1.96%25.03%34.60%47.55%52.16%-49.99%
Dividend Yield--1.93%1.52%1.22%2.08%1.66%2.74%2.27%1.75%0.96%0.70%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)904.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)104.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)800.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)180.81113.0067.80
Cash Retained (M)800.03800.03800.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-180.81-113.00-67.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)619.22687.03732.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)989.95989.95989.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.630.690.74
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.630.690.74
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.730.800.84
WACC / Discount Rate17.81%17.81%17.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6.26$7.52$8.81
Upside / Downside-64.99%-57.93%-50.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)904.03962.791,025.371,092.021,163.001,238.601,275.76
Payout Ratio11.50%27.20%42.90%58.60%74.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)104.00261.91439.91639.94864.121,114.741,180.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate17.81%17.81%17.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)220.22222.31224.40
Year 2 PV (M)311.02316.94322.92
Year 3 PV (M)380.43391.35402.48
Year 4 PV (M)431.94448.55465.63
Year 5 PV (M)468.52491.15514.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,348.413,510.143,678.06
Equity Value (M)5,160.545,380.455,608.14
Shares Outstanding (M)989.95989.95989.95
Fair Value$5.21$5.44$5.67
Upside / Downside-70.84%-69.60%-68.32%

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