Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co., Ltd. (601965.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.25 - $8.79$7.51
Multi-Stage$5.21 - $5.66$5.43
Blended Fair Value$6.47
Current Price$17.88
Upside-63.81%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.25%10.88%0.360.300.300.300.250.250.200.150.100.06
YoY Growth--19.67%1.53%-0.11%20.10%1.96%25.03%34.60%47.55%52.16%-49.99%
Dividend Yield--1.93%1.52%1.22%2.08%1.66%2.74%2.27%1.75%0.96%0.70%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)904.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)104.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)800.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)180.81113.0067.80
Cash Retained (M)800.03800.03800.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-180.81-113.00-67.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)619.22687.03732.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)989.95989.95989.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.630.690.74
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.630.690.74
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.730.800.84
WACC / Discount Rate17.83%17.83%17.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6.25$7.51$8.79
Upside / Downside-65.03%-57.98%-50.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)904.03962.791,025.371,092.021,163.001,238.601,275.76
Payout Ratio11.50%27.20%42.90%58.60%74.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)104.00261.91439.91639.94864.121,114.741,180.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate17.83%17.83%17.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)220.20222.28224.37
Year 2 PV (M)310.94316.86322.84
Year 3 PV (M)380.29391.20402.33
Year 4 PV (M)431.72448.32465.40
Year 5 PV (M)468.23490.85514.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,342.993,504.463,672.11
Equity Value (M)5,154.375,373.985,601.38
Shares Outstanding (M)989.95989.95989.95
Fair Value$5.21$5.43$5.66
Upside / Downside-70.88%-69.64%-68.35%

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