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Definitive Analysis

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China Merchants Securities Co., Ltd. (600999.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.52 - $68.92$42.34
Multi-Stage$31.57 - $34.62$33.07
Blended Fair Value$37.71
Current Price$17.11
Upside120.38%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.97%17.18%0.990.911.251.060.860.780.830.570.740.64
YoY Growth--8.95%-26.84%18.09%22.64%10.39%-5.70%44.17%-22.15%14.61%215.70%
Dividend Yield--5.60%6.46%9.05%7.30%4.39%5.50%5.57%3.99%5.46%4.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12,107.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,716.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)8,391.63
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,421.561,513.47908.08
Cash Retained (M)8,391.638,391.638,391.63
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,421.56-1,513.47-908.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,970.076,878.167,483.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8,953.658,953.658,953.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.670.770.84
LTM Dividend per Share0.420.420.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.670.770.84
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.081.181.25
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate2.97%3.97%4.97%
Fair Value$28.52$42.34$68.92
Upside / Downside66.71%147.49%302.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12,107.7912,588.2613,087.7813,607.1414,147.1014,708.4815,149.74
Payout Ratio30.69%42.55%54.42%66.28%78.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,716.165,356.797,121.779,018.3911,054.3213,237.6414,013.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate2.97%3.97%4.97%
Year 1 PV (M)4,964.065,012.275,060.48
Year 2 PV (M)6,115.816,235.176,355.69
Year 3 PV (M)7,176.757,387.897,603.12
Year 4 PV (M)8,152.008,473.328,804.05
Year 5 PV (M)9,046.399,494.289,959.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)247,240.09259,481.20272,202.45
Equity Value (M)282,695.09296,084.14309,985.54
Shares Outstanding (M)8,953.658,953.658,953.65
Fair Value$31.57$33.07$34.62
Upside / Downside84.53%93.27%102.34%

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