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Definitive Analysis

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China Merchants Securities Co., Ltd. (600999.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.53 - $68.92$42.35
Multi-Stage$31.57 - $34.62$33.07
Blended Fair Value$37.71
Current Price$17.11
Upside120.39%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.97%17.18%0.990.911.251.060.860.780.830.570.740.64
YoY Growth--8.95%-26.84%18.09%22.64%10.39%-5.70%44.17%-22.15%14.61%215.70%
Dividend Yield--5.60%6.46%9.05%7.30%4.39%5.50%5.57%3.99%5.46%4.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12,107.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,716.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)8,391.63
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,421.561,513.47908.08
Cash Retained (M)8,391.638,391.638,391.63
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,421.56-1,513.47-908.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,970.076,878.167,483.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8,953.658,953.658,953.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.670.770.84
LTM Dividend per Share0.420.420.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.670.770.84
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.081.181.25
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate2.97%3.97%4.97%
Fair Value$28.53$42.35$68.92
Upside / Downside66.72%147.50%302.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12,107.7912,588.2613,087.7813,607.1414,147.1014,708.4815,149.74
Payout Ratio30.69%42.55%54.42%66.28%78.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,716.165,356.797,121.779,018.3911,054.3213,237.6414,013.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate2.97%3.97%4.97%
Year 1 PV (M)4,964.075,012.285,060.49
Year 2 PV (M)6,115.826,235.196,355.71
Year 3 PV (M)7,176.787,387.917,603.15
Year 4 PV (M)8,152.038,473.368,804.09
Year 5 PV (M)9,046.449,494.349,959.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)247,249.06259,490.62272,212.33
Equity Value (M)282,704.20296,093.70309,995.56
Shares Outstanding (M)8,953.658,953.658,953.65
Fair Value$31.57$33.07$34.62
Upside / Downside84.54%93.28%102.35%

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