DDM Analysis: 300979.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$54.64 - $115.20	$77.41
Multi-Stage	$39.69 - $43.37	$41.50
Blended Fair Value	$59.45
Current Price	$53.02
Upside	12.13%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
DPS	101.75%	0.00%	1.22	1.25	1.15	1.02	0.12	0.04	0.11	0.53	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-2.49%	8.83%	12.35%	783.68%	217.21%	-65.45%	-80.02%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.95%	2.08%	2.19%	1.41%	0.12%	0.04%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	3,432.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	429.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)	3,002.61

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	686.51	429.07	257.44
Cash Retained (M)	3,002.61	3,002.61	3,002.61
(-) Cash Required (M)	-686.51	-429.07	-257.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)	2,316.10	2,573.54	2,745.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,169.59	1,169.59	1,169.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.98	2.20	2.35
LTM Dividend per Share	0.37	0.37	0.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.98	2.20	2.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.35	2.57	2.71
WACC / Discount Rate	10.03%	10.03%	10.03%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$54.64	$77.41	$115.20
Upside / Downside	3.06%	45.99%	117.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	3,432.57	3,655.69	3,893.31	4,146.37	4,415.89	4,702.92	4,844.01
Payout Ratio	12.53%	28.02%	43.52%	59.01%	74.51%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	429.96	1,024.35	1,694.19	2,446.79	3,290.06	4,232.63	4,480.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	10.03%	10.03%	10.03%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	922.20	930.94	939.69
Year 2 PV (M)	1,373.16	1,399.31	1,425.72
Year 3 PV (M)	1,785.39	1,836.64	1,888.87
Year 4 PV (M)	2,161.33	2,244.45	2,329.94
Year 5 PV (M)	2,503.26	2,624.17	2,749.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)	37,678.14	39,498.01	41,387.52
Equity Value (M)	46,423.48	48,533.52	50,721.44
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,169.59	1,169.59	1,169.59
Fair Value	$39.69	$41.50	$43.37
Upside / Downside	-25.14%	-21.74%	-18.21%

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Huali Industrial Group Company Limited (300979.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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