Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Huali Industrial Group Company Limited (300979.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$103.57 - $583.67$196.52
Multi-Stage$59.11 - $64.68$61.84
Blended Fair Value$129.18
Current Price$53.02
Upside143.65%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS101.75%0.00%1.221.251.151.020.120.040.110.530.000.00
YoY Growth---2.49%8.83%12.35%783.68%217.21%-65.45%-80.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.95%2.08%2.19%1.41%0.12%0.04%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,432.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)429.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,002.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)686.51429.07257.44
Cash Retained (M)3,002.613,002.613,002.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-686.51-429.07-257.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,316.102,573.542,745.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,169.591,169.591,169.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.982.202.35
LTM Dividend per Share0.370.370.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.982.202.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.352.572.71
WACC / Discount Rate7.89%7.89%7.89%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$103.57$196.52$583.67
Upside / Downside95.34%270.65%1,000.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,432.573,655.693,893.314,146.374,415.894,702.924,844.01
Payout Ratio12.53%28.02%43.52%59.01%74.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)429.961,024.351,694.192,446.793,290.064,232.634,480.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.89%7.89%7.89%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)940.51949.42958.34
Year 2 PV (M)1,428.211,455.411,482.87
Year 3 PV (M)1,893.831,948.192,003.59
Year 4 PV (M)2,338.102,428.022,520.51
Year 5 PV (M)2,761.752,895.143,033.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)59,767.2562,654.0365,651.29
Equity Value (M)69,129.6572,330.2375,650.25
Shares Outstanding (M)1,169.591,169.591,169.59
Fair Value$59.11$61.84$64.68
Upside / Downside11.48%16.64%21.99%

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