DDM Analysis: 300784.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$24.56 - $55.74	$35.70
Multi-Stage	$17.53 - $19.15	$18.33
Blended Fair Value	$27.02
Current Price	$53.54
Upside	-49.54%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
DPS	36.13%	0.00%	0.26	0.04	0.00	0.80	0.04	0.06	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	623.06%	1,115.14%	-99.62%	1,902.96%	-29.42%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.48%	0.03%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	63.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	12.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	51.80

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	12.76	7.97	4.78
Cash Retained (M)	51.80	51.80	51.80
(-) Cash Required (M)	-12.76	-7.97	-4.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)	39.04	43.82	47.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	52.71	52.71	52.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.74	0.83	0.89
LTM Dividend per Share	0.23	0.23	0.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.74	0.83	0.89
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.97	1.06	1.12
WACC / Discount Rate	9.66%	9.66%	9.66%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$24.56	$35.70	$55.74
Upside / Downside	-54.13%	-33.32%	4.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	63.79	67.94	72.36	77.06	82.07	87.40	90.02
Payout Ratio	18.81%	33.04%	47.28%	61.52%	75.76%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	12.00	22.45	34.21	47.41	62.18	78.66	83.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.66%	9.66%	9.66%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	20.28	20.47	20.67
Year 2 PV (M)	27.92	28.45	28.99
Year 3 PV (M)	34.95	35.95	36.97
Year 4 PV (M)	41.40	43.00	44.63
Year 5 PV (M)	47.32	49.61	51.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)	752.25	788.59	826.31
Equity Value (M)	924.13	966.06	1,009.55
Shares Outstanding (M)	52.71	52.71	52.71
Fair Value	$17.53	$18.33	$19.15
Upside / Downside	-67.25%	-65.77%	-64.22%

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Ningbo Lian Technology Co Ltd (300784.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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