Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ningbo Lian Technology Co Ltd (300784.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24.56 - $55.74$35.70
Multi-Stage$17.53 - $19.15$18.33
Blended Fair Value$27.02
Current Price$53.54
Upside-49.54%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS36.13%0.00%0.260.040.000.800.040.060.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--623.06%1,115.14%-99.62%1,902.96%-29.42%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.48%0.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)63.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)51.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.767.974.78
Cash Retained (M)51.8051.8051.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.76-7.97-4.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)39.0443.8247.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)52.7152.7152.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.740.830.89
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.740.830.89
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.971.061.12
WACC / Discount Rate9.66%9.66%9.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$24.56$35.70$55.74
Upside / Downside-54.13%-33.32%4.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)63.7967.9472.3677.0682.0787.4090.02
Payout Ratio18.81%33.04%47.28%61.52%75.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12.0022.4534.2147.4162.1878.6683.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.66%9.66%9.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)20.2820.4720.67
Year 2 PV (M)27.9228.4528.99
Year 3 PV (M)34.9535.9536.97
Year 4 PV (M)41.4043.0044.63
Year 5 PV (M)47.3249.6151.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)752.25788.59826.31
Equity Value (M)924.13966.061,009.55
Shares Outstanding (M)52.7152.7152.71
Fair Value$17.53$18.33$19.15
Upside / Downside-67.25%-65.77%-64.22%

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