Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Centre Testing International Group Co. Ltd. (300012.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Consulting ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.98 - $11.44$8.97
Multi-Stage$5.64 - $6.15$5.89
Blended Fair Value$7.43
Current Price$12.86
Upside-42.25%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.28%15.48%0.100.060.060.040.040.040.050.030.030.03
YoY Growth--59.34%1.87%68.13%-6.94%-0.89%-12.13%31.04%21.59%12.05%6.83%
Dividend Yield--0.78%0.48%0.30%0.19%0.14%0.26%0.51%0.68%0.60%0.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)986.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)168.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)817.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)197.32123.3374.00
Cash Retained (M)817.76817.76817.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-197.32-123.33-74.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)620.43694.43743.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,675.881,675.881,675.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.370.410.44
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.370.410.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.470.520.54
WACC / Discount Rate12.62%12.62%12.62%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6.98$8.97$11.44
Upside / Downside-45.73%-30.28%-11.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)986.611,050.741,119.041,191.781,269.251,351.751,392.30
Payout Ratio17.11%31.69%46.27%60.85%75.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)168.86333.00517.77725.15957.301,216.571,287.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate12.62%12.62%12.62%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)292.91295.69298.46
Year 2 PV (M)400.61408.24415.94
Year 3 PV (M)493.52507.68522.12
Year 4 PV (M)573.08595.12617.78
Year 5 PV (M)640.61671.55703.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,050.117,390.637,744.19
Equity Value (M)9,450.839,868.9110,302.17
Shares Outstanding (M)1,675.881,675.881,675.88
Fair Value$5.64$5.89$6.15
Upside / Downside-56.15%-54.21%-52.20%

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