Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Centre Testing International Group Co. Ltd. (300012.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Consulting ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.38 - $24.73$16.29
Multi-Stage$8.23 - $8.99$8.60
Blended Fair Value$12.45
Current Price$12.86
Upside-3.22%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.28%15.48%0.100.060.060.040.040.040.050.030.030.03
YoY Growth--59.34%1.87%68.13%-6.94%-0.89%-12.13%31.04%21.59%12.05%6.83%
Dividend Yield--0.78%0.48%0.30%0.19%0.14%0.26%0.51%0.68%0.60%0.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)986.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)168.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)817.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)197.32123.3374.00
Cash Retained (M)817.76817.76817.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-197.32-123.33-74.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)620.43694.43743.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,675.881,675.881,675.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.370.410.44
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.370.410.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.470.520.54
WACC / Discount Rate9.87%9.87%9.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$11.38$16.29$24.73
Upside / Downside-11.53%26.69%92.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)986.611,050.741,119.041,191.781,269.251,351.751,392.30
Payout Ratio17.11%31.69%46.27%60.85%75.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)168.86333.00517.77725.15957.301,216.571,287.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.87%9.87%9.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)300.25303.09305.94
Year 2 PV (M)420.93428.94437.04
Year 3 PV (M)531.53546.79562.34
Year 4 PV (M)632.68657.02682.04
Year 5 PV (M)724.95759.97796.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,175.4111,715.1912,275.62
Equity Value (M)13,785.7614,411.0015,059.31
Shares Outstanding (M)1,675.881,675.881,675.88
Fair Value$8.23$8.60$8.99
Upside / Downside-36.03%-33.13%-30.13%

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