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Definitive Analysis

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Nanshan Aluminium Intrnatnl Holdings Ltd (2610.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: AluminumSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.34 - $21.74$16.33
Multi-Stage$67.22 - $74.22$70.65
Blended Fair Value$43.49
Current Price$4.01
Upside984.57%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%0.030.030.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.98%0.99%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)539.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)376.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)162.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)107.8767.4240.45
Cash Retained (M)162.96162.96162.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-107.87-67.42-40.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)55.0995.54122.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)566.38566.38566.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.170.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.660.660.66
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.170.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.760.830.88
WACC / Discount Rate4.05%4.05%4.05%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$12.34$16.33$21.74
Upside / Downside207.67%307.25%442.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)539.33533.94528.60523.31518.08512.90528.28
Payout Ratio69.79%73.83%77.87%81.91%85.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)376.37394.20411.62428.67445.32461.61488.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.05%4.05%4.05%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)375.02378.85382.67
Year 2 PV (M)372.55380.20387.92
Year 3 PV (M)369.11380.52392.17
Year 4 PV (M)364.80379.92395.50
Year 5 PV (M)359.74378.48397.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)36,230.9438,117.5740,081.99
Equity Value (M)38,072.1740,015.5342,038.23
Shares Outstanding (M)566.38566.38566.38
Fair Value$67.22$70.65$74.22
Upside / Downside1,576.32%1,661.89%1,750.95%

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