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Definitive Analysis

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Nanshan Aluminium Intrnatnl Holdings Ltd (2610.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: AluminumSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.36 - $21.80$16.36
Multi-Stage$67.87 - $74.95$71.34
Blended Fair Value$43.85
Current Price$4.01
Upside993.54%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%0.030.030.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.98%0.99%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)539.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)376.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)162.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)107.8767.4240.45
Cash Retained (M)162.96162.96162.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-107.87-67.42-40.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)55.0995.54122.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)566.38566.38566.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.170.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.660.660.66
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.170.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.760.830.88
WACC / Discount Rate4.04%4.04%4.04%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$12.36$16.36$21.80
Upside / Downside208.18%308.07%443.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)539.33533.94528.60523.31518.08512.90528.28
Payout Ratio69.79%73.83%77.87%81.91%85.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)376.37394.20411.62428.67445.32461.61488.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.04%4.04%4.04%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)375.06378.88382.71
Year 2 PV (M)372.63380.27387.99
Year 3 PV (M)369.21380.63392.28
Year 4 PV (M)364.94380.07395.66
Year 5 PV (M)359.92378.66398.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)36,600.0838,505.9340,490.36
Equity Value (M)38,441.8340,404.4442,447.17
Shares Outstanding (M)566.38566.38566.38
Fair Value$67.87$71.34$74.95
Upside / Downside1,592.60%1,679.01%1,768.96%

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