Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hebei Sinopack Electronic Technology Co.,Ltd. (003031.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27.17 - $60.95$39.34
Multi-Stage$19.77 - $21.58$20.66
Blended Fair Value$30.00
Current Price$60.52
Upside-50.43%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS230.74%0.00%0.290.010.050.060.000.000.000.000.010.00
YoY Growth--2,224.40%-75.17%-19.23%10,058.73%-16.42%-84.41%140.60%-82.62%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.62%0.03%0.08%0.13%0.00%0.01%0.06%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)613.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)189.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)423.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)122.6576.6645.99
Cash Retained (M)423.81423.81423.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-122.65-76.66-45.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)301.16347.16377.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)452.35452.35452.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.670.770.84
LTM Dividend per Share0.420.420.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.670.770.84
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.081.191.25
WACC / Discount Rate9.71%9.71%9.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$27.17$39.34$60.95
Upside / Downside-55.11%-35.00%0.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)613.26653.12695.57740.78788.93840.22865.42
Payout Ratio30.89%42.71%54.53%66.36%78.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)189.44278.97379.33491.56616.77756.19800.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.71%9.71%9.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)251.88254.27256.66
Year 2 PV (M)309.25315.14321.09
Year 3 PV (M)361.85372.23382.82
Year 4 PV (M)409.94425.71441.93
Year 5 PV (M)453.82475.74498.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,157.787,503.517,862.46
Equity Value (M)8,944.539,346.609,763.45
Shares Outstanding (M)452.35452.35452.35
Fair Value$19.77$20.66$21.58
Upside / Downside-67.33%-65.86%-64.34%

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