Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hebei Sinopack Electronic Technology Co.,Ltd. (003031.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$54.06 - $269.62$113.14
Multi-Stage$29.54 - $32.31$30.90
Blended Fair Value$72.02
Current Price$60.52
Upside19.01%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS230.74%0.00%0.290.010.050.060.000.000.000.000.010.00
YoY Growth--2,224.40%-75.17%-19.23%10,058.73%-16.42%-84.41%140.60%-82.62%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.62%0.03%0.08%0.13%0.00%0.01%0.06%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)613.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)189.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)423.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)122.6576.6645.99
Cash Retained (M)423.81423.81423.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-122.65-76.66-45.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)301.16347.16377.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)452.35452.35452.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.670.770.84
LTM Dividend per Share0.420.420.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.670.770.84
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.081.191.25
WACC / Discount Rate7.62%7.62%7.62%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$54.06$113.14$269.62
Upside / Downside-10.67%86.95%345.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)613.26653.12695.57740.78788.93840.22865.42
Payout Ratio30.89%42.71%54.53%66.36%78.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)189.44278.97379.33491.56616.77756.19800.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.62%7.62%7.62%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)256.79259.22261.66
Year 2 PV (M)321.41327.53333.71
Year 3 PV (M)383.39394.40405.61
Year 4 PV (M)442.81459.84477.36
Year 5 PV (M)499.75523.89548.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,459.5012,012.9912,587.68
Equity Value (M)13,363.6513,977.8814,614.97
Shares Outstanding (M)452.35452.35452.35
Fair Value$29.54$30.90$32.31
Upside / Downside-51.18%-48.94%-46.61%

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