DDM Analysis: 002144.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.92 - $1.33	$1.12
Multi-Stage	$1.32 - $1.45	$1.39
Blended Fair Value	$1.25
Current Price	$12.54
Upside	-90.02%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	8.95%	-2.62%	0.16	0.11	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.15	0.15	0.15	0.20
YoY Growth	-	-	46.23%	6.33%	0.00%	-1.91%	0.66%	-33.27%	-0.95%	3.13%	-26.14%	-0.81%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.38%	1.10%	0.88%	0.95%	1.13%	1.12%	1.23%	1.16%	0.71%	0.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	21.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	8.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)	12.93

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	4.36	2.73	1.64
Cash Retained (M)	12.93	12.93	12.93
(-) Cash Required (M)	-4.36	-2.73	-1.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)	8.57	10.21	11.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	176.23	176.23	176.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.06	0.06
LTM Dividend per Share	0.05	0.05	0.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.06	0.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.10	0.11	0.11
WACC / Discount Rate	9.99%	9.99%	9.99%
Growth Rate	-0.73%	0.27%	1.27%
Fair Value	$0.92	$1.12	$1.33
Upside / Downside	-92.69%	-91.09%	-89.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	21.80	21.86	21.92	21.98	22.04	22.10	22.76
Payout Ratio	40.68%	50.54%	60.41%	70.27%	80.14%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	8.87	11.05	13.24	15.44	17.66	19.89	21.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.99%	9.99%	9.99%
Growth Rate	-0.73%	0.27%	1.27%
Year 1 PV (M)	9.95	10.05	10.15
Year 2 PV (M)	10.73	10.95	11.16
Year 3 PV (M)	11.26	11.61	11.96
Year 4 PV (M)	11.59	12.07	12.56
Year 5 PV (M)	11.75	12.36	12.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)	178.06	187.21	196.73
Equity Value (M)	233.34	244.23	255.54
Shares Outstanding (M)	176.23	176.23	176.23
Fair Value	$1.32	$1.39	$1.45
Upside / Downside	-89.44%	-88.95%	-88.44%

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Hongda High-Tech Holding Co.,Ltd. (002144.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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