Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hongda High-Tech Holding Co.,Ltd. (002144.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.92 - $1.33$1.12
Multi-Stage$1.32 - $1.45$1.39
Blended Fair Value$1.25
Current Price$12.54
Upside-90.02%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.95%-2.62%0.160.110.100.100.100.100.150.150.150.20
YoY Growth--46.23%6.33%0.00%-1.91%0.66%-33.27%-0.95%3.13%-26.14%-0.81%
Dividend Yield--1.38%1.10%0.88%0.95%1.13%1.12%1.23%1.16%0.71%0.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)21.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)12.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.362.731.64
Cash Retained (M)12.9312.9312.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.36-2.73-1.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)8.5710.2111.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)176.23176.23176.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.11
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate-0.73%0.27%1.27%
Fair Value$0.92$1.12$1.33
Upside / Downside-92.69%-91.09%-89.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)21.8021.8621.9221.9822.0422.1022.76
Payout Ratio40.68%50.54%60.41%70.27%80.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8.8711.0513.2415.4417.6619.8921.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate-0.73%0.27%1.27%
Year 1 PV (M)9.9510.0510.15
Year 2 PV (M)10.7310.9511.16
Year 3 PV (M)11.2611.6111.96
Year 4 PV (M)11.5912.0712.56
Year 5 PV (M)11.7512.3612.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)178.06187.21196.73
Equity Value (M)233.34244.23255.54
Shares Outstanding (M)176.23176.23176.23
Fair Value$1.32$1.39$1.45
Upside / Downside-89.44%-88.95%-88.44%

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