DDM Analysis: ULTJ.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$12,191.05 - $23,263.37	$21,801.19
Multi-Stage	$3,639.57 - $3,984.05	$3,808.64
Blended Fair Value	$12,804.92
Current Price	$1,290.00
Upside	892.63%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	23.56%	24.21%	41.53	32.85	23.70	92.30	6.78	14.42	15.30	4.77	0.79	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	26.42%	38.66%	-74.33%	1,260.64%	-52.95%	-5.77%	221.02%	506.91%	0.00%	-100.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.81%	1.76%	1.68%	6.17%	0.45%	0.90%	1.24%	0.30%	0.07%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,216,325.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	483,516.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	732,809.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	243,265.00	152,040.63	91,224.38
Cash Retained (M)	732,809.00	732,809.00	732,809.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-243,265.00	-152,040.63	-91,224.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)	489,544.00	580,768.38	641,584.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	10,398.18	10,398.18	10,398.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share	47.08	55.85	61.70
LTM Dividend per Share	46.50	46.50	46.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share	47.08	55.85	61.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend	93.58	102.35	108.20
WACC / Discount Rate	6.31%	6.31%	6.31%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$12,191.05	$21,801.19	$23,263.37
Upside / Downside	845.04%	1,590.01%	1,703.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,216,325.00	1,295,386.13	1,379,586.22	1,469,259.33	1,564,761.18	1,666,470.66	1,716,464.78
Payout Ratio	39.75%	49.80%	59.85%	69.90%	79.95%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	483,516.00	645,125.13	825,700.60	1,027,025.23	1,251,033.47	1,499,823.59	1,587,729.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.31%	6.31%	6.31%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	601,136.90	606,834.88	612,532.86
Year 2 PV (M)	716,937.76	730,593.41	744,377.89
Year 3 PV (M)	830,939.48	854,792.77	879,098.24
Year 4 PV (M)	943,162.75	979,434.13	1,016,741.75
Year 5 PV (M)	1,053,628.04	1,104,518.67	1,157,357.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)	33,699,082.52	35,326,760.81	37,016,734.18
Equity Value (M)	37,844,887.47	39,602,934.68	41,426,841.93
Shares Outstanding (M)	10,398.18	10,398.18	10,398.18
Fair Value	$3,639.57	$3,808.64	$3,984.05
Upside / Downside	182.14%	195.24%	208.84%

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PT Ultrajaya Milk Industry & Trading Company Tbk (ULTJ.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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