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Definitive Analysis

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PT Ultrajaya Milk Industry & Trading Company Tbk (ULTJ.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12,190.83 - $23,263.37$21,801.19
Multi-Stage$3,639.55 - $3,984.03$3,808.63
Blended Fair Value$12,804.91
Current Price$1,290.00
Upside892.63%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS23.56%24.21%41.5332.8523.7092.306.7814.4215.304.770.790.00
YoY Growth--26.42%38.66%-74.33%1,260.64%-52.95%-5.77%221.02%506.91%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--2.81%1.76%1.68%6.17%0.45%0.90%1.24%0.30%0.07%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,216,325.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)483,516.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)732,809.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)243,265.00152,040.6391,224.38
Cash Retained (M)732,809.00732,809.00732,809.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-243,265.00-152,040.63-91,224.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)489,544.00580,768.38641,584.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10,398.1810,398.1810,398.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share47.0855.8561.70
LTM Dividend per Share46.5046.5046.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share47.0855.8561.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend93.58102.35108.20
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$12,190.83$21,801.19$23,263.37
Upside / Downside845.03%1,590.01%1,703.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,216,325.001,295,386.131,379,586.221,469,259.331,564,761.181,666,470.661,716,464.78
Payout Ratio39.75%49.80%59.85%69.90%79.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)483,516.00645,125.13825,700.601,027,025.231,251,033.471,499,823.591,587,729.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)601,136.82606,834.80612,532.78
Year 2 PV (M)716,937.56730,593.21744,377.68
Year 3 PV (M)830,939.13854,792.41879,097.87
Year 4 PV (M)943,162.22979,433.581,016,741.18
Year 5 PV (M)1,053,627.311,104,517.901,157,356.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)33,698,907.9835,326,577.8437,016,542.45
Equity Value (M)37,844,711.0339,602,749.7441,426,648.16
Shares Outstanding (M)10,398.1810,398.1810,398.18
Fair Value$3,639.55$3,808.63$3,984.03
Upside / Downside182.14%195.24%208.84%

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