DDM Analysis: PATK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$70.97 - $160.60	$103.06
Multi-Stage	$52.36 - $57.11	$54.69
Blended Fair Value	$78.88
Current Price	$103.43
Upside	-23.74%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	53.98%	0.00%	1.46	1.23	0.96	0.79	0.69	0.17	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	19.10%	28.21%	21.63%	14.36%	307.55%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.73%	1.55%	2.09%	1.87%	1.25%	0.91%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	120.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	53.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)	67.45

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	24.11	15.07	9.04
Cash Retained (M)	67.45	67.45	67.45
(-) Cash Required (M)	-24.11	-15.07	-9.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)	43.34	52.38	58.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	34.35	34.35	34.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.26	1.52	1.70
LTM Dividend per Share	1.55	1.55	1.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.26	1.52	1.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.81	3.07	3.25
WACC / Discount Rate	9.67%	9.67%	9.67%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$70.97	$103.06	$160.60
Upside / Downside	-31.38%	-0.35%	55.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	120.54	128.37	136.71	145.60	155.06	165.14	170.10
Payout Ratio	44.05%	53.24%	62.43%	71.62%	80.81%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	53.09	68.34	85.35	104.28	125.31	148.63	157.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.67%	9.67%	9.67%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	61.73	62.31	62.90
Year 2 PV (M)	69.63	70.96	72.30
Year 3 PV (M)	76.84	79.05	81.30
Year 4 PV (M)	83.41	86.61	89.91
Year 5 PV (M)	89.36	93.67	98.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,417.73	1,486.21	1,557.30
Equity Value (M)	1,798.69	1,878.81	1,961.86
Shares Outstanding (M)	34.35	34.35	34.35
Fair Value	$52.36	$54.69	$57.11
Upside / Downside	-49.38%	-47.13%	-44.79%

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Patrick Industries, Inc. (PATK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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