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Definitive Analysis

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Patrick Industries, Inc. (PATK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$70.97 - $160.60$103.06
Multi-Stage$52.36 - $57.11$54.69
Blended Fair Value$78.88
Current Price$103.43
Upside-23.74%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS53.98%0.00%1.461.230.960.790.690.170.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--19.10%28.21%21.63%14.36%307.55%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.73%1.55%2.09%1.87%1.25%0.91%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)120.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)53.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)67.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24.1115.079.04
Cash Retained (M)67.4567.4567.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-24.11-15.07-9.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)43.3452.3858.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)34.3534.3534.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.261.521.70
LTM Dividend per Share1.551.551.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.261.521.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.813.073.25
WACC / Discount Rate9.67%9.67%9.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$70.97$103.06$160.60
Upside / Downside-31.38%-0.35%55.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)120.54128.37136.71145.60155.06165.14170.10
Payout Ratio44.05%53.24%62.43%71.62%80.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)53.0968.3485.35104.28125.31148.63157.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.67%9.67%9.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)61.7362.3162.90
Year 2 PV (M)69.6370.9672.30
Year 3 PV (M)76.8479.0581.30
Year 4 PV (M)83.4186.6189.91
Year 5 PV (M)89.3693.6798.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,417.731,486.211,557.30
Equity Value (M)1,798.691,878.811,961.86
Shares Outstanding (M)34.3534.3534.35
Fair Value$52.36$54.69$57.11
Upside / Downside-49.38%-47.13%-44.79%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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